The Pollsters Weren’t Right About Ronald Reagan and They’re Not Right about Donald Trump!

Americans supporting Donald Trump shouldn’t be the least bit discouraged by the scandalously “rigged” polls showing Hillary Clinton winning by a landslide since they’re just as wrong about Donald Trump as they were when Ronald Reagan won by ten points despite polls showing the election as a virtual dead heat. You can read about Ronald Reagan’s very unexpected win here, and then in the 2012 election, many polls got it wrong and Obama won by a much larger margin than predicted. In fact, many polls predicted a Romney win, and as stated in this Huffington Post article, Gallup conducted an internal assessment of why their final poll was off by five percent. Then Nate Silver of 538 provided his analysis of the 2012 polls in this article, which reveals even more about the methods used by various pollsters and why they can’t be relied on for accuracy. I wrote about this last August in American Pollsters are LITERALLY “Rigging” Poll Results to Show Hillary Clinton Winning, which I encourage everyone to read, especially since there’s a lot of interesting information about 538 and how they play the “expectations game” to rig the election outcome and are very closely connected to the White House.

Additionally, historic models often used to accurately predict the outcomes of presidential elections tend to favor and predict a Trump win, and even a professor who clearly isn’t a fan of Donald Trump acknowledges that his model forecasts a Donald Trump victory. But reading this article by Professor Allan J. Lichtman reveals his unabashed bias, and reading how he chose to answer some of the questions is even more encouraging since most honest people wouldn’t agree with his conclusions. For instance, he wrote ● The United States has not fallen into a double-dip recession, but remains in a slow recovery, retaining for Democrats Short-Term Economy Key 5. But most people don’t agree with that because they no longer have good paying full time jobs, many have lost their homes and even more are on some kind of government assistance, don’t like ObamaCare and feel that the Obama administration’s numbers on the economy are being “doctored.” So for the same reasons, most people don’t likely agree with Professor Lichtman’s conclusion that ● Although the recovery is slow, economic growth in Obama’s second term exceeds that of the previous two terms, which spanned the recession of 2008-2009, securing Long-Term Economy Key 6. And there’s no doubt that most Americans don’t agree with Professor Lichtman’s conclusion that ● By a very narrow margin the Democrats retain Social Unrest Key 7. There have been sporadic outbreaks of violent protests against police shootings of African American men, but not the sustained unrest of the 1960s or the Reconstruction period. Many people I’ve talked to say the assassination of those police officers as they protected the very people who were protesting them in Dallas was like 9/11 to them, and I really don’t think the victims and families of the terrorist attacks in San Bernardino and Orlando agree with the professor either. Perhaps the professor’s most shocking conclusion and proof of his bias is his failure to recognize the magnitude of the scandals that erupted when unprecedented corruption was exposed in President Obama’s Department of Justice (with both Attorney Generals), His IRS, his Veteran’s Administration, his Federal Bureau of Investigation, his Department of State, and when his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton willfully demonstrated unmitigated contempt of Congress with the destruction of her lawfully subpoenaed emails and devices, her extremely careless and unlawful handling of our nation’s most highly classified and top secret information, not to mention learning that President Obama lied about not knowing Hillary Clinton was using a private email account and server (since he was using it to communicate with her) and that she wasn’t held accountable in any way, shape or form. Otherwise, it’s doubtful Professor Lichtman would have stated ● The lack of a significant scandal involving President Obama keeps in line Scandal Key 8. And while the professor might not consider the spread of ISIS (the world’s most menacing terrorist organization in history) a foreign policy failure, the vast majority of American voters sure do! So we also don’t agree with the professor’s statement that ● Despite foreign policy challenges, the Obama administration has not suffered a major foreign policy or military failure, comparable to losing the Vietnam War, keeping Foreign/Military Failure Key 10 in line. Most Americans also consider the disaster in Syria and the resulting flood of Syrian refugees a major foreign policy failure. And finally, Professor Lichtman clearly underestimates the appeal of Donald Trump based on his conclusion that ● Republican challenger Donald Trump appeals to a segment of the electorate, but lacks the broad appeal of Ronald Reagan and has the highest negative ratings of any presidential candidate in history. This keeps Democrats from losing the Challenger Charisma/Hero Key 13. Not only that, NO ONE thinks Hillary Clinton has a drop of Charisma and she certainly isn’t anyone’s national hero! That means that by using Professor Allan J. Lichtman’s scoring method, a Donald Trump victory is even more likely. Professor Lichtman also “fudged” on Key 2 just because Bernie Sanders conceded the primary election before the Democratic convention. Then Professor Lichtman included as an asterisk his angry rant and tirade about every Clinton campaign talking point and outright slanderous statements against Donald Trump, which clearly reveals his bias and personal hope that his model is wrong this time since he virtually endorsed Hillary Clinton! Now read Professor Lichtman’s thirteen keys for predicting the outcome of presidential elections WITHOUT his bias added to the mix and see what you think, keeping in mind that just six “false” answers mean Donald Trump wins:
1 Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (True per Lichtman)
3 Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4 Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5 Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (True per Lichtman)
6 Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (True per Lichtman)
7 Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8 Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (True per Lichtman)
9 Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (True per Lichtman)
10 Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (True per Lichtman)
11 Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12 Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13 Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (True per Lichtman)
So while Professor Lichtman significantly distorted the truth and managed to find seven “true” keys as indicated above; at best, I’d only give the Democratic Party the two keys regarding the economy since some people might buy their phony numbers. But that still leaves eleven “false” keys without the professor’s monumental efforts to prove otherwise, and that’s very good news for Donald Trump and our country!

Then despite all the polls predicting otherwise, just two days ago, another professor, Helmut Norpoth, said he stands by his model and still predicts a Trump victory. He also said other academics agree with him but aren’t willing to say so publically!

Finally, everyone should listen to this informative conversation between Pat Caddell and Neil Cavuto as well because it’s VERY revealing! Pat Caddell is a former Democratic pollster and he told Neal Cavuto that he’s “never seen the polls so screwy.” They also talked about the polls being way off since 2014 and mentioned some recent polls that were off quite significantly; including the election of Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin last November, who one by nine points even though he was down by five points one week before the election! So Governor Bevin’s interview with Mark Levin the day after his election is a strong indicator of exactly what’s going to happen in just fifteen days! Pat even admitted that he has a problem with “some of the finagling going on” and that “some of it’s pretty shady.” It’s a very interesting and frank discussion of how the polls are being rigged, as well as how the mainstream media is in collusion with the Clinton campaign. Pat Caddell even said the mainstream media is on a jihad! He also said the polls are being weighted with far too many Democrats, and pointed out that the big difference in the Fox poll from one week to the next was because they changed the weighting for Democrats from two and a half percent to nine percent and that put Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by seven points. Little did Pat Caddell know when he did that interview with Neil Cavuto just how right he was—ON ALL ACCOUNTS! As reported here, among John Podesta’s latest leaked emails is a poll rigging “playbook” designed to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.” That’s absolute proof that they’re working with the media polling companies to get the results they want and they even specifically suggested oversampling Democrats and targeting certain demographics and independents from Dem-friendly areas. So it’s no wonder the last ABC poll showing Hillary Clinton with a twelve point lead had a nine point oversampling of Democrats…that’s the only way she could win and that’s NOT going to happen!

So no matter how much they try to convince us otherwise, the pollsters weren’t right about Ronald Reagan and they’re not right about Donald Trump either! We all just have to get out and vote and get as many people as we can to the polls with us. They can’t win unless we let them win, and I just don’t believe the majority of Americans will let that happen this time!

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